The Rise of China

The Rise of China

The United States’ combination of military power and wealth grants it hegemony in the current international system. However, a new hegemon could be emerging before our eyes as China’s economy continues to grow at a rapid pace. According to John Ikenberry, “The United States’ ‘unipolar moment’ will inevitably end. If the defining struggle of the twenty-first century is between China and the United States, China will have the advantage…” (Ikenberry 2008). Ikenberry suggests that the rise of China will undoubtedly pose as a threat to the current dominance of the United States but predicts that it will not affect the dominance of western civilization as a whole. Ikenberry holds the belief that the United States’ leadership of the Western Order gives us an unquenchable amount of power over China and in fact encourages the assimilation of China in to the Western Order. Ikenberry feels that opening the Western Order’s arms to China will encourage integration in to western policies and will prevent an overturn of power. Realists such as Mearsheimer feel as if this is an extremely threatening situation and the United States must take all precautions necessary to ensure that China’s economy does not continue to grow. Given that China is a crucial trading partner to the United States, boycotting all economic ties with them does not appear to be in our best interest. Naturally, Mearsheimer’s followers believe that inviting a potential revisionist power into our system of world order is like entering the lion’s den.

While I agree with Mearsheimer’s theory that the growth of China must indeed be contained, his suggestion of thwarting all trade with them negatively effects the US economy as well. However, I am also not completely sold on Ikenberry’s theory of integration. It seems to me that bringing a growing world power into a system that spoon-feeds it an increased sense of leadership and influence along with connections with prosperous partners may actually spur even greater growth for China. Ikenberry claims that the Western Order is a rule-based system making it, “…easy to join and hard to overturn” (2008) and that once integrated into the Western Order, China is likely to become a leader of the WTO, thus increasing its power and influence in the international system. Providing a socialist nation with increased influence and leadership in the world order does not bode well for the hopes of a democratic future. As rising power entering a powerful system, China will surely want to exhibit its newfound power and leadership and will express a desire to, “…reshape the rules and institutions in accordance with their own interests” (2008). As a democratic nation that yearns to see the spread of democracy, is a world order in which the rules are geared toward a socialist perspective what we want? Therefore perhaps it is best to deprive China of any influence in the current world order.

The rise of China is an inevitable threat to both the hegemony of the United States and the preservation of a democratically ruled Western Order. While we cannot simply cut ties with China as their economic prosperity is crucial to our survival, I also do not fully support welcoming a rising socialist power into the world order with open arms. While China’s growth cannot be prevented without damaging the growth of the United States, the preservation of a democratically dominant international system can be assured if China is not granted additional influence in the Western Order. China will undoubtedly surpass the United States economically, however the potential spread of socialist policies and institutions can be prevented if China remains excluded from the Western Order.